HomeNewsU.S. natural gas prices firm as investors await storage report

U.S. natural gas prices firm as investors await storage report

3/14/2024

(Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained, having hit their lowest in more than two weeks earlier, as investors awaited a weekly storage report that is expected to show a much smaller-than-usual storage withdrawal on lower heating demand.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.4 cents, or 1.5%, to $1.682 per million British thermal units at 10:09 a.m. EDT (1409 GMT).

"The market is effectively flat. If we see any kind of price rally this morning, it's just a little short covering ahead of the number, but we should consolidate into this number," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis.

"There's really nothing crazy to be expected, but the number today, it's going to be a relatively low, either it will be a small build or a small draw," he added.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT). U.S. utilities likely pulled a much smaller-than-usual 3 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas out of storage last week as warmer-than-normal weather kept heating demand low, a Reuters poll showed. [EIA/GAS]

The forecast for the week ended March 8 would cut stockpiles to 2.331 trillion cubic feet (tcf), about 17.2% above the same week a year ago and about 37.4% above the five-year average.

Prices fell as low as $1.511 per mmBtu on Feb. 27, their lowest level since June 2020, as near-record output, mostly mild weather and low heating demand this winter allowed utilities to leave significantly more gas in storage than usual for this time of year.

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 100.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, down from 104.1 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

 

Week ended Mar 8 Forecast

Week ended Mar 1 Actual

Year ago Mar 8

Five-year average

Mar 8

  

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

-3

-40

-65

-87

  

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,331

2,334

1,989

1,696

  

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

37.4%

30.9%

      
           
           

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub <NGc1>

1.65

1.67

2.41

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1>

8.00

7.91

13.72

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1>

8.48

8.47

13.59

14.39

14.31
           
           

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

          

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

235

236

291

303

307

U.S. GFS CDDs

13

12

17

11

9

U.S. GFS TDDs

248

248

308

314

316
           

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

          
 

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

          

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

100.3

100.3

100.6

101.7

95.1

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.3

7.6

7.9

8.6

8.4

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

107.6

107.8

108.5

110.3

103.6
           

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

          

U.S. Exports to Canada

3.7

3.8

3.8

2.7

3.0

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.6

6.5

6.4

5.2

5.4

U.S. LNG Exports

13.4

13.1

12.6

13.2

9.2

U.S. Commercial

10.5

10.4

11.0

14.3

12.3

U.S. Residential

15.8

15.1

16.0

22.8

19.4

U.S. Power Plant

30.6

29.3

30.0

30.4

23.8

U.S. Industrial

23.5

23.6

24.2

24.1

26.8

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.9

5.0

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.3

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

87.8

85.8

88.7

98.9

89.7

Total U.S. Demand

111.6

109.2

111.4

120.0

107.3
           
           
           
           

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

          
 

Week ended Mar 15

Week ended Mar 8

Week ended Mar 1

Week ended Feb 23

Week ended Feb 16

Wind

15

15

16

13

11

Solar

5

4

4

4

4

Hydro

8

7

7

7

7

Other

1

1

1

1

1

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

38

39

38

40

41

Coal

12

13

16

15

16

Nuclear

21

21

21

20

21
           

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

          

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

      

Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL>

1.25

1.57

      

Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL>

1.09

1.27

      

PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL>

2.41

2.34

      

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL>

1.02

1.24

      

Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL>

1.18

1.29

      

Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL>

1.20

1.35

      

SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL>

1.77

1.91

      

Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL>

1.09

0.20

      

AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL>

1.52

1.20

      
           

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

          

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

      

New England <EL-PK-NPMS-SNL>

21.25

24.00

      

PJM West <EL-PK-PJMW-SNL>

18.75

25.50

      

Ercot North <EL-PK-ERTN-SNL>

32.75

16.50

      

Mid C <EL-PK-MIDC-SNL>

37.69

40.29

      

Palo Verde <EL-PK-PLVD-SNL>

8.50

3.75

      

SP-15 <EL-PK-SP15-SNL>

6.25

2.25

      

 

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