HomeNewsU.S. natural gas futures climb 3% on LNG exports and storage drop

U.S. natural gas futures climb 3% on LNG exports and storage drop

2/6/2026
  • Gas futures rise due to increased LNG exports and storage drop
  • Mild weather may eliminate storage deficit, analysts say
  • LSEG reports higher gas output and demand forecasts

U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a one-week high on Friday on rising flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected, and a drop in the amount of gas in storage after last week's record withdrawal during an Arctic freeze.

Gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.7 cents, or 2.5%, to $3.596 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since January 30.

Even though the front-month was on track to rise for a fourth day in a row, the contract was still down about 17% for the week, matching last week's 17% loss.

The rapid drop in the amount of gas in storage in recent weeks has supported this week's price gains. Energy firms stockpile gas during the summer (April-October) when demand is generally lower than daily output for use during the winter (November-March) when demand for heating is generally higher than daily output.

Energy firms pulled a record 360 Bft3 of gas out of storage during the week ended January 30 to meet surging heating demand during an Arctic blast, putting stockpiles on track to drop from around 5% above normal during the week ended January 23 to around 6% below normal during the week ended February 6.

Energy analysts, however, have noted that mild weather expected to last through at least late February could wipe out that storage deficit over the next month or so.

Supply and demand. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 106.9 Bft3d so far in February, up from 106.3 Bft3d in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 Bft3d in December.

After extreme cold last week, meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through February 21. Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast, however, were still expected to remain below normal for several more days.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 159.5 Bft3d this week to 141.4 Bft3d next week and 132.6 Bft3d in two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.5 Bft3d so far in February, up from 17.8 Bft3d in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.5 Bft3d in December.

 

Week ended Feb 6 Forecast

Week ended Jan 30 Actual

Year ago Feb 6

Five-year average (2021-2025) Feb 6

  

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

-249

-360

-111

-146

  

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,214

2,463

2,311

2,344

  

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

-5.5%

-1.1%

      
           
           

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2025

Five-Year Average (2021-2025)

Henry Hub <NGc1>

3.59

3.51

3.74

3.62

3.79

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) <TRNLTTFMc1>

11.98

12.10

15.28

11.94

18.51

Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) <JKMc1>

11.08

11.10

14.41

12.24

18.12
           
           

LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days

          

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)

374

369

407

415

409

U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)

4

5

14

5

4

U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)

378

374

421

420

413
           

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

          
 

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

          

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

98.9

107.0

107.2

105.6

97.8

U.S. Imports from Canada

11.9

10.9

9.1

N/A

9.0

U.S. LNG Imports

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

110.9

118.0

116.3

N/A

106.9
           

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

          

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.5

3.0

3.2

N/A

3.5

U.S. Exports to Mexico

5.7

5.8

6.2

N/A

5.4

U.S. LNG Export Feedgas

15.3

18.6

18.6

15.0

12.6

U.S. Commercial

24.6

20.9

17.1

15.3

14.6

U.S. Residential

43.4

35.7

28.3

24.7

24.0

U.S. Power Plant

41.5

39.5

33.9

32.3

31.8

U.S. Industrial

28.2

27.1

25.5

24.9

25.2

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.9

5.3

5.3

4.9

5.4

U.S. Pipe Distribution

3.9

3.5

3.0

3.9

4.0

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

146.8

132.1

113.3

106.1

105.2

Total U.S. Demand

170.3

159.5

141.4

N/A

126.7
           

N/A = Not Available

          
           

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast

2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2025 % of Normal Actual

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

94

93

76

74

83

Jan-Jul

93

93

78

76

77

Oct-Sep

99

97

80

77

76
           

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

          
 

Week ended Feb 6

Week ended Jan 30

2025

2024

2023

Wind

8

8

11

11

10

Solar

4

4

6

5

4

Hydro

5

6

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

1

2

Petroleum

1

2

0

0

0

Natural Gas

40

39

40

42

41

Coal

22

22

18

16

17

Nuclear

18

17

18

19

19
           

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

          

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2025

Five-Year Average (2021-2025)

Henry Hub <NG-W-HH-SNL>

5.28

6.88

4.19

3.52

3.72

Transco Z6 New York <NG-CG-NY-SNL>

8.32

25.08

4.90

3.53

3.56

PG&E Citygate <NG-CG-PGE-SNL>

2.10

2.04

3.78

3.42

5.47

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) <NG-PCN-APP-SNL>

3.56

4.31

4.03

2.79

2.96

Chicago Citygate <NG-CG-CH-SNL>

3.69

4.25

4.19

3.23

3.60

Algonquin Citygate <NG-CG-BS-SNL>

18.71

28.25

13.65

6.08

5.04

SoCal Citygate <NG-SCL-CGT-SNL>

2.77

2.75

4.19

3.60

5.71

Waha Hub <NG-WAH-WTX-SNL>

-0.10

-0.12

2.76

1.15

2.88

AECO <NG-ASH-ALB-SNL>

1.31

1.41

1.53

1.13

2.13
           

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

          

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2025

Five-Year Average (2021-2025)

New England <E-NEPLMHP-IDX>

199.54

213.25

134.58

77.61

61.79

PJM West <E-PJWHRTP-IX>

131.58

164.69

53.89

60.23

54.47

Mid C <W-MIDCP-IDX>

25.93

26.84

67.87

44.81

68.96

Palo Verde <W-PVP-IDX>

22.06

27.38

29.05

34.82

59.94

SP-15 <W-SP15-IDX>

23.02

27.55

25.19

28.44

53.02

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

 

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