HomeNewsU.S. natural gas prices climb 2% on record flows to LNG export plants

U.S. natural gas prices climb 2% on record flows to LNG export plants

3/3/2025
  • S. gas output hits record high in February
  • S. LNG export feedgas hits record high in February
  • Output and LNG export feedgas on track to hit new records in March

U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Monday on record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 8.4 cents, or 2.2%, to $3.918 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest level since February 14.

The price increase occurred despite record output and forecasts for the weather to remain mild through the middle of March, which should allow utilities to pull less gas out of storage in coming weeks.

Extreme cold weather earlier this year, however, has already forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles to around 12% below the five-year (2020-2024) normal.

With prices down about 9% last week, speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Intercontinental Exchange for the second time in 12 weeks, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.

Supply and demand. Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.8 Bft3d so far in March, up from a record 104.7 Bft3d in February.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 18.

With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 119.3 Bft3d this week to 114.7 Bft3d next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 15.8 Bft3d so far in March, up from a record 15.6 Bft3d in February, as new units at Venture Global's 3.2-Bft3d Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due partly to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $14 per MMBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.

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