Europe gas prices rise on lower temperature forecast
Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose on Monday morning, rebounding from lows late last week, on forecasts of lower temperatures and as Russian forces intensified attacks on Ukraine.
The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub rose by €1.81 to €40.6 per megawatt hour (MWh), or $12.87/MMBtu, by 0916 GMT, LSEG data showed.
On Friday, it traded as low as €36.45/MWh, its lowest level since Sept. 27, 2024.
The British front-month contract was 7.50 pence higher at 98.50 pence per therm, while the day-ahead contract was up 5.00 pence at 100.50 p/therm.
The latest temperature forecasts show lower temperatures for the period between March 12 and March18, which could push up demand, said LSEG analyst Saku Jussila.
Russia stormed the town of Sudzha on Sunday after special forces used a gas pipeline to surprise Ukrainian units as part of a major offensive to eject Ukrainian soldiers from the western Russian region of Kursk, pro-Russian war bloggers said.
Sudzha is the home of major gas transfer and measuring stations on a pipeline that used to carry Russian natural gas into the Ukrainian gas transmission system for onward transportation to Europe.
The forces advanced further in the Kursk region on Monday.
"The news from Ukraine, combined with a colder temperature forecast, should support the market today," Jussila said.
A Russian attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure overnight could mean Ukraine would need more assistance from European markets, which is already under strain due to low gas storage levels as the end of the winter season approaches, analysts at consultancy Auxilione said.
EU gas storage sites were last seen 36.80% full, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed, and the EU has maintained a refilling target of 90% by Nov. 1.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract was up €1.38 at €68.70 a metric ton.
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