HomeNewsU.S. natgas prices climb 3% to three-week high on colder forecasts, rising LNG flows

U.S. natgas prices climb 3% to three-week high on colder forecasts, rising LNG flows

2/17/2025
  • Freezing wells cut U.S. output over past week
  • S. gas production still on track for record high in February
  • S. LNG export feedgas on track for record high in February

U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a three-week high on Friday (2/14) on rising flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, a drop in daily output and forecasts for colder weather lifting expected heating demand next week.

Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9.7 cents, or 2.7%, to settle at $3.725 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest close since January 24.

That also put the front-month up for a fifth day in a row for the first time since November 2024.

For the week, the contract was up about 13% after gaining about 9% last week.

Looking ahead, the 12-month futures strip was trading at $4.16 per MMBtu, its highest since December 2022.

Supply and demand. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.6 Bft3d so far in February, up from 102.7 Bft3d in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 Bft3d in December 2023.

But with the return of extreme cold that is again freezing wells in some parts of the country, daily output was on track to drop by around 3.2 Bft3d over the last eight days to a preliminary three-week low of 103.6 Bft3d on Friday. That compares with a daily record high of 106.7 Bft3d on February 6. Analysts noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through February 23 before switching to near normal levels from February 24–March 1.

With mostly colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 138.7 Bft3d this week to 147.9 Bft3d next week, before dropping to 134.4 Bft3d in two weeks as the weather warms. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.3 Bft3d so far in February, up from 14.6 Bft3d in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 Bft3d in December 2023.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit a record 16 Bft3d on Thursday, topping the prior all-time daily high of 15.8 Bft3d on January 18. That fresh record came as flows to Venture Global's 2.6-Bft3d Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana hit a fresh high of 1.4 Bft3d.

The United States became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $15 per MMBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia. For JKM, that was a two-month high.

Related News

Comments

{{ error }}
{{ comment.comment.Name }} • {{ comment.timeAgo }}
{{ comment.comment.Text }}