HomeNewsChina stimulus to lift 2025 gas imports, but trade war may curb growth

China stimulus to lift 2025 gas imports, but trade war may curb growth

1/24/2025
  • China gas import growth expected at about 10% in 2025
  • Forecasts put 2025 LNG imports at record high around 80 MMt
  • Renewed trade tensions with U.S. could cap gas demand

China's natural gas imports are forecast to rise in 2025, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments headed for a record as economic stimulus plans lift demand from industries, although analysts and traders said trade tension with the U.S. may cap growth.

Gas imports via pipeline and LNG into the world's second-largest economy are expected to rise to about 200 Bm3 this year, according to estimates from three energy consultancies, up about 10% from record 2024 imports of 131.7 MM tonnes (t) (181.8 Bm3).

While industrial demand will generally support gas import growth, some sectors will drive the gains more than others.

Rystad Energy, which sees industrial demand for gas increasing 10.5 Bm3 year-on-year, expects steelmaking, ceramics and glass production to see more demand growth as they are more likely to react to China's efforts to encourage domestic demand and boost the property market, said analyst Wei Xiong.

Manufacturing, however, could be hit if trade conflict with the U.S. escalates under President Donald Trump, she said.

Annual demand growth from China's power and residential sectors is expected to come in at 7.2 Bm3 and 5.9 Bm3, respectively, Wei also said, as 17.8 gigawatts (GW) of gas-fired power capacity was added last year, mostly in southern China.

State major China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) said industrial gas demand for 2025 will grow "fairly fast" as China quickens infrastructure development and expands the manufacture of electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar panels.

CNPC forecast this week that China's overall gas demand would rise 6.2% in 2025 to a record 448.5 Bm3. CNPC also expects import dependence the next few years to hold near 45%, which would put imports this year at about 200 Bm3, matching the estimates of the consultancies.

China is also set to install 20 GW of gas-fired power plants this year to bring total natural gas capacity to 160 GW, CNPC said.

An acceleration in the development of gas pipelines and import terminals under China's 2021–2025 five-year plan will lead to higher consumption as well, said ICIS analyst Wang Yuanda.

LNG demand risks. China will import a record high 79 MMt–86 MMt of LNG this year, according to the forecasts, as new long-term contracts kick in and new import terminals start up.

China, the world's top importer, shipped in 76.65 MMt of LNG last year, the most in three years but below a 2021 record, customs data showed.

U.S. LNG cargoes destined for China could be disrupted, however, if trade tensions with the U.S. give rise to tariffs.

In 2019, Beijing slapped punitive tariffs on U.S. LNG, retaliating for Washington's increase in tariffs on Chinese goods. The stakes are higher now, with China importing 4.16 MMt of U.S. LNG in 2024, nearly double 2018 volumes.        

High Asian spot prices and China's protracted property crisis could also curb LNG imports.

Spot prices around $14 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) are already too high, said a trader with a privately controlled Chinese gas importer, noting that piped gas from Russia and Central Asia is more affordable.

Weaker demand for building materials amid China's property crisis also has industrial gas users such as glass and ceramics makers buying cheaper domestic pipeline gas and cutting LNG purchases, said two traders dealing with these customers.

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