EIA: US natgas output to decline in 2024, while demand rises to record high
U.S. natural gas production will decline in 2024 while demand will rise to a record high, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
The EIA has projected dry gas production will ease from a record 103.8 Bft3d in 2023 to 103.5 Bft3d in 2024 as several producers reduce drilling activities after gas prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.
In 2025, the EIA projected output would rise to 105.2 Bft3d. The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would rise from a record 89.1 Bft3d in 2023 to 89.4 Bft3d in 2024 before easing to 89.2 Bft3d in 2025.
If the projections are correct, 2024 would be the first time output declines since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand for the fuel. It would also be the first time demand increases for four years in a row since 2016.
The latest projections for 2024 were higher than the EIA's June forecast of 102.1 Bft3d for supply and unchanged from the agency's June forecast of 89.4 Bft3d for consumption.
In Appalachia, the biggest U.S. shale gas basin spanning Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, output is set to rise from 34.7 Bft3d in July to 34.8 Bft3d in August. Appalachia output hit monthly records of 37.1 Bft3d in November and December 2023.
The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 12.2 Bft3d in 2024 and 14.3 Bft3d in 2025, up from a record 11.9 Bft3d in 2023. That was higher than the EIA's LNG export forecast in June of 12.1 Bft3d.
The agency projected U.S. coal production would fall from 577.5 MM short tons (t) in 2023 to 509.7 MMt in 2024, the lowest since 1964, and 489.5 MMt in 2025, the lowest since 1963, as gas and renewable sources of power displace coal-fired plants.
The EIA projected carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels would rise from 4.793 metric Bt in 2023 to 4.819 metric Bt in 2024 as all fossil fuel use increases, and 4.825 metric Bt in 2025 as petroleum use increases.
That means carbon emissions were on track to rise in four out of five years through 2025 since dropping to 4.584 metric Bt in 2020, the lowest since 1983, when the pandemic sapped demand for energy.
Carbon emissions also fell in 2023 as power companies burned less coal.
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