Prices mixed on strong LNG supply, cooler weather forecasts

9/20/2022

(Reuters) - British and Dutch gas prices were mixed on Tuesday morning as expectations of strong supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and high storage levels competed with cooler weather forecasts.

The Dutch front-month contract, the European benchmark, was up 6.73 euros at 182.23 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) at 0915 GMT.

The Dutch day-ahead contract was down 6.98 euros at 158.02 euros/MWh while the equivalent British day-ahead contract was down 3 pence at 248 p/therm.

“The combination of strong LNG supply… and limited demand (due to surging prices affecting mostly industrial users, households and commercial customers) despite temperatures sitting below seasonal norms continued to weigh on market sentiment,” analysts at Engie EnergyScan said.

Supply of gas from Britain’s LNG terminals was expected at 77 MM cubic meters on Tuesday, Refinitiv Eikon data showed, up around 5 MM cubic meters from the previous day.

Traders said Europe’s high stock levels were also bearish for prices, with Europe’s gas stores currently almost 86% full ahead of an 80% November target.

However, weather forecasts have turned cooler for next week, indicating gas demand could rise.

“Next week will be generally more active with increasing precipitation amounts and below normal temperatures,” Refinitiv analyst Georg Muller said.

Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine were steady on Tuesday morning, operator data showed, while deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline remain at zero.

Flows through the pipeline were halted on Aug. 31 for what was supposed to be three days of maintenance, but the pipeline has not reopened, with Moscow blaming the disruption on Western sanctions and technical issues.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract was up 1.19 euros at 72.29 euros a tonne.

(Reporting by Susanna Twidale; editing by Jason Neely)