Boom in LNG could add more than 90 MMt of greenhouse gases a year

The soaring price of natural gas, driven in part by the war in Ukraine, is encouraging the development of 25 LNG export terminal projects in the U.S. that could emit more than 90 million tons of greenhouse gases a year, according to state and federal permits reviewed by the Environmental Integrity Project.

That’s as much climate-warming pollution as from about 18 MM gasoline-powered passenger vehicles running for a year – more than from all the cars and trucks in Florida or New York State.

In March 2022, as gas prices surged and fossil fuel advocates pushed U.S. LNG as a solution to European reliance on Russian gas, America exported 7.6 MMt of LNG, quadruple the amount four years earlier, according to the Environmental Integrity Project’s report, “Playing with Fire: The Climate Impact of the Rapid Growth of LNG.”

The Biden Administration has pledged to increase exports of LNG – a liquid form of natural gas that is transported globally on ships at sub-zero temperatures – and the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has picked up the pace in approving permits for new and expanding LNG terminals in Texas, Louisiana, and other states.

“Although there is pressure to hurry up approvals of these LNG projects, government regulators should be careful and thoughtful in considering their significant environmental impacts,” said Alexandra Shaykevich, Research Manager at the Environmental Integrity Project (EIP).

“A dramatic increase in global dependence on LNG could be risky, from a climate perspective.” EIP closely tracks the public records of new and expanding LNG export terminals and makes those documents available on Oil and Gas Watch, a website that monitors oil and gas related projects across the country. An analysis of those records, summarized in EIP’s new report, reveals the following:

1. LNG produced in the U.S. is currently exported from seven terminals – three in Louisiana, two in Texas, and one each in Georgia and Maryland – six of which are already operating near capacity.

2. Four new LNG export terminals are under construction and expected to begin operating by 2026. Together, these four plants – Golden Pass and Port Arthur LNG in Jefferson County, Texas; Driftwood LNG in Calcasieu Parish, Louisiana; and Plaquemines LNG in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana – have permits that allow them to release up to 27.3 MMt of greenhouse gases per year.

3. Developers of nine additional planned LNG projects in Louisiana, Texas, and Florida (six new terminals and three expansions) have government permits, but have not yet started construction. These projects could release 25.6 MMt of greenhouse gases annually.

4. Twelve more proposed LNG projects (10 new terminals and two expansions) have been proposed for Alaska, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Texas but are still waiting for government approvals. These projects could emit up to 37.7 MMt of greenhouse gases per year.

5. Altogether, the 25 LNG projects currently under construction or in the planning phases could increase annual greenhouse gas emissions by more than 90 MMt of greenhouse gases per year. That’s more climate-warming pollution than from 20 new coal-fired power plants, or 18 MM gas-powered cars running for a year.

It should be noted that these potential greenhouse gas impacts would only come from operating the LNG terminals themselves. They do not include emissions from drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or the eventual burning of gas in homes and businesses.

If these upstream and downstream contributions are accounted for, the true climate footprint of LNG would be several times higher, according to EIP’s report.

Since the Russian invasion of the Ukraine on February 24, American companies have secured at least nineteen agreements to supply nearly 24 MMt of LNG per year, with around 7 million tons per year contracted by European buyers.

In addition, on March 31, New Fortress Energy announced the proposed construction of the first new LNG export facility since the start of the war: a new floating LNG terminal off the coast of Louisiana, with an expected operation date in early 2023. The developers of two other long planned but stalled LNG projects – both in Louisiana – moved forward with construction in March and April, further showing strong financial support for LNG in the wartime market.

(Tom Pelton, Environmental Integrity Project)

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