BP Energy Outlook 2018 - gas demand increase through switching

Natural gas grows strongly, with broad-based demand, low-cost supplies and increasing global availability.

Natural gas grows strongly, supported by broad-based demand, strong increases in low-cost supplies, and continuing expansion of supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) increasing the availability of gas globally.
• In the 'Evolving Transition' (ET) scenario, natural gas growth is supported by a number of factors: increasing levels of industrialization and power demand (particularly in emerging Asia and Africa); continued coal-to-gas switching (especially in China); and the increasing availability of low-cost supplies (in North America and the Middle East).
• The US and the Middle East (Qatar and Iran) contribute over half of the incremental production. By 2040, the US accounts for almost one quarter of global gas production, ahead of both the Middle East and CIS (each accounting for around 20%).
• Global LNG supplies more than double over the Outlook, with around 40% of that expansion occurring over the next five years. The sustained growth in global LNG supplies greatly increases the availability of gas around the world, with LNG volumes overtaking inter-regional pipeline shipments in the early 2020s

Growth in natural gas demand is led by increases in industry and the power sector.
• In the ET scenario, growth in industrial use of gas including use in the noncombusted sector (70 Bcf/d) is supported by both continued industrialization in developing economies, together with gas gaining share as some countries in both OECD and non-OECD switch away from coal.

• The increase in gas used by the power sector (59 Bcf/d) is driven by the overall growth in global power demand. The competing trends in renewables and coal demand means the share of gas within the power sector is relatively flat over the Outlook.

• The growth of gas demand within buildings (21 Bcf/d) is less significant, reflecting that almost all of the incremental energy demand within buildings over the Outlook is for electricity to provide space cooling and power electrical appliances.

• The fastest rate of growth of gas demand is in the transport sector as gas is
increasingly used in trucking and marine transport. Although the increase in transport demand is small in absolute amount (11 Bcf/d), the share of gas within transport increases to almost 5% by 2040

• Most Read
• Most Commented