GasPro ’14: Simulation modeling calculates failure occurrence

By Adrienne Blume
Managing Editor

HOUSTON -- On Day 2 of the GasPro North America conference, Mike Strobel, principal of Fidelis Group LLC, shared information on a reliability modeling system for gas plants and other hydrocarbon processing facilities.

Mr. Strobel launched into his presentation with a slide showing the entire gas processing network of Kuwait, as well as the entire country's hydrocarbons use network.

He used this example to illustrate how Fidelis can provide a holistic system analysis for any type of system.

Fidelis uses Monte Carlo-based simulation modeling to study extremely large to extremely small hydrocarbon processing and usage systems, to predict how small changes will impact the performance of large systems in terms of variables such as unit capacity, unit performance, maintenance, spare parts, utilities, transportation, personnel, weather, etc.

All of these variables are sampled and repeated, until the margin of change falls within a certain narrow range.

The asset management model used within the simulation considers availability (i.e., reliability and maintainability), which impacts deliverability (i.e., availability and operability), which dictates economics (i.e., deliverability and costs), which leads to an informed decision on system changes.

Inputs to the asset model include configuration (i.e., flow diagrams, piping and instrumentation diagrams, index flowsheets, process flow descriptions), failure/repair data, and operation and maintenance logic (i.e., scheduled activities, demand, and alternate supplies).

Outputs include any performance desired—i.e., performance vs. time, shipping logistics, reliability, etc.

The simulation also identifies when and where losses occur, so that companies can spend their money where improvements are needed—i.e., supply chain logistics, equipment redundancy, quality of components and other categories.

The inaugural GasPro North America conference concludes Wednesday at the Hyatt Regency in downtown Houston.

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