Editorial Comment

The IEA’s “Global Gas Security Review2020” report, released in October, projects that global gas demand will fall by 3%, or 120 Bm3, in 2020—the largest drop on record. Several LNG export projects scheduled for FID this year have been forced to postpone their decisions to 2022–2023, as discussed in Hydrocarbon Processing’s “HPI Market Data 2021” report, also released in October. Amid this temporary demand shift, LNG continuesto play a central role in balancing global gas markets.

Faced with a historic fall in global gas demand in the firstsix months of 2020, gas producers and exporters have provided necessary flexibility to adjust supply. LNG was one of thekey enablers of this adjustment, with monthly global exports decreasing by 17% between January and July. In this context,LNG contracting activity has collapsed from a high of 95 Bm3
in 2018 to approximately 35 Bm3 in the first three quarters of 2020, according to the IEA.

Meanwhile, the structure of LNG supply is set to be reshaped, since roughly one-third of active contracts are due to expire between 2020 and 2025, while export capacity is set to expand by 20%. These trends create an unprecedented challenge and opportunity for market participants.

If fewer LNG projects come online than previously anticipated, it will help ease the ongoing supply glut by reducing global LNG supply between 2024 and 2027. However, strategists have warned that balking at too many prospective LNG projects will undermine supply/demand fundamentals. After the 2020s, more LNG will be required to meet continuinggrowth in Asia’s burgeoning economies. GP