U.S. natural gas futures climb as LNG exports approach record levels

• Gas futures rise despite warmer weather forecasts
• Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints
• S. LNG exports increase to near-record levels

U.S. natural gas edged up on Tuesday on near-record flows of gas to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.

Gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2 cents, or 0.6%, to $3.158 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest since January 16.

Prices edged up despite forecasts for warmer weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Looking ahead, the premium of futures for November over October rose to its highest since November 2024.

Traders use the March-April and October-November spreads to bet on winter weather forecasts and supply and demand. March is the last month of the winter heating season when utilities pull gas out of storage, and October is the last month of the summer cooling season when utilities inject gas into storage.

In the cash market, meanwhile, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas fell into negative territory for a fourth day in a row and the 13th time this year, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Daily Waha prices first fell below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.

Waha prices have averaged $1.58 per MMBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

Supply and demand. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 107.4 Bft³d so far in February, up from 106.3 Bft³d in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 109.7 Bft³d in December.

After extreme cold over the past couple of weeks, meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through February 25. Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast, however, were expected to remain below normal for a few more days.

Energy firms pulled a record 360 Bft³ out of storage during the week ended January 30 to meet surging heating demand during an Arctic blast, cutting stockpiles to around 1% below normal levels for this time of year. Continued cold last week likely cut inventories down to around 6% below normal during the week ended February 6.

Energy analysts, however, noted mild weather over the next few weeks could wipe out much of that storage deficit by March.

Energy firms stockpile gas during the summer (April–October) when demand is generally lower than daily output and pull that gas out of storage during the winter (November–March) when demand for heating is usually higher than daily output.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 141.1 Bft³d this week to 125.1 Bft³d next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.5 Bft³d so far in February, up from 17.8 Bft³d in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.5 Bft³d in December.

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Nick Zieminski)

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