U.S. and Europe drive global power emissions higher so far in 2025

The world's largest power polluter, China, made its biggest cut to power emissions since 2020 so far this year, but global power emissions have still held largely flat due to higher fossil fuel power generation in the United States and Europe.

The United States and Europe emitted a combined 801 MM tonnes (t) of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from fossil fuel-based power production during January to March, data from Ember shows.

That emissions toll was 53 MMt or 7% more than during the same period in 2024, and was the highest since 2022 for the opening quarter of the year.

The greater discharge from the U.S. and Europe largely offset a 60-MMt drop in fossil power emissions in China, and means that global power sector pollution levels remain elevated despite reductions in the top polluting market.

With the U.S. power sector about to enter its most fossil fuel-intensive generation period just as China's manufacturers lift output during the trade truce with the U.S., global power emissions will likely keep rising and hit new highs in 2025.

Fossil fired. Power producers in both the United States and Europe boosted generation from fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas during the opening months of 2025 from the year before.

In Europe, sustained low wind speeds reduced supplies of clean power and forced utilities to compensate with 8% more fossil fuel-fired output than during January to March of 2024.

Gas-fired generation climbed by 8% while coal-fired output rose by 6% during the first quarter of 2025 from the same months in 2024, according to Ember.

In the United States, steadily rising power demand coupled with strong support for fossil fuels from the new administration of President Donald Trump spurred utilities to lift fossil fuel power output by 4% during January to March from the year before.

However, sharply rising gas prices drove utilities to prioritize generation from cheaper-to-run coal plants, with coal-fired output jumping by 23% during January to March 2025 from the same months in 2024. Gas-fired power output shrank 4%.

Economic drag. China's overall power demand during the opening months of 2025 was impacted by the stunted state of its economy, which has been hampered by an enduring construction sector credit crisis and more lately by the new trade war with the United States.

Lower output by industrial plants and factories in turn reduced demand for power by the commercial sector, and allowed utilities to reduce output from fossil fuels by 4% during January to March from the same period in 2024.

Going forward, however, China's manufacturers are likely to boost production following the recently announced 90-day trade truce between China and the United States.

Higher factory activity will directly trigger more power demand, and will likely force Chinese power firms to lift output from fossil fuels to ensure adequate power supplies over the coming months.

Emissions peak. U.S. power firms are also set to crank fossil fuel-fired power production, as the peak period for U.S. power demand is over the summer when use of energy-intensive air conditioners is at its highest.

The summer is also when U.S. solar power output peaks, which will provide utilities with more clean energy.

But power firms will remain primarily dependent on fossil fuels for a majority of power supplies, especially during the evenings when solar output falls just as air conditioner use in households rises.

And with benchmark U.S. natural gas prices currently holding around 40% more than where they were in May of 2024, utilities will likely continue to deploy high volumes of cheaper coal-fired power within generation networks.

That in turn will further boost overall power emissions, as U.S. power firms discharge far more CO₂ from coal-fired power generation than from gas-fired generation.

In 2024, U.S. power firms discharged around 950,000 t of CO₂ per terawatt hour (TWh) of coal-fired electricity, and around 540,000 t of CO₂ per TWh of gas-fired electricity output, according to Ember.

Combine those emissions loads with the expected rise in generation from China - where utilities rely on coal for around 60% of electricity supplies - and the stage is set for a further climb in global power emissions over the coming months.

The opinions expressed here are those of Gavin Maguire, a columnist for Reuters.

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