HomeNewsUpdate: U.S. natgas prices climb 3% to one-month high on lower output, rising LNG export flows

Update: U.S. natgas prices climb 3% to one-month high on lower output, rising LNG export flows

5/9/2025
  • S. LNG export feedgas hit record high in April
  • S. gas output hit record high in April
  • S. gas storage about 3% over five-year normal

U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a one-month high on Friday on a drop in output in recent weeks and forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected as gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants increase.

Gas futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.6 cents, or 3.0%, to $3.698 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since April 9.

For the week, the front-month was up about 2% after jumping about 24% last week.

Analysts said mild weather expected to last through late May should keep heating and cooling demand low, allowing utilities to continue injecting more gas into storage than normal for this time of year.

Gas stockpiles are currently around 3% above the five-year (2020–2024) normal.

Some analysts said mild weather could allow energy firms to add record amounts of gas into storage in May. The current all-time monthly injection high of 494 Bft3 was set in May 2015.

If correct, that would come just a few months after utilities pulled a monthly record of 1.013 Bft3 of gas from storage in January to keep homes and businesses warm during extreme cold weather this winter.

Supply and demand. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 103.4 Bft3d so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 Bft3d in April.

Since gas output hit a daily record high of 107.4 Bft3d on April 18, production was on track to drop about 4.8 Bft3d to a preliminary 11-week low of 102.6 Bft3d on Friday. Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Looking ahead, analysts said the roughly 15% drop in U.S. crude futures so far in 2025 would likely prompt drillers to cut back on oil production. Any decline in oil production would ultimately reduce the amount of gas pulled out of the ground that is associated with that oil output. About 37% of U.S. gas production comes from associated gas, according to federal energy data.

Over time, analysts said that reduction in gas output should increase gas prices.

Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 23.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 97.1 Bft3d this week to 95.5 Bft3d next week before rising to 98.2 Bft3d. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 14.9 Bft3d so far in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 Bft3d in April.

The LNG feedgas decline so far this month was mostly due to reductions for maintenance at Cameron LNG's 2.0-Bft3d plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's 3.9- Bft3d Corpus Christi plant under construction and in operation in Texas, and a one-day outage at Freeport LNG's 2.1-Bft3d plant in Texas on May 6.

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